COVID-19 Impacts- No Conspiracy Theories

[watchpalooza]

Here is a snapshot of where Germany is after imposing restrictions on March 16th:

[The Sultan of SoWhat]

The mayor's robocall today revealed that the number of coronavirus patients released by NJ hospitals is now greater than those newly admitted.

Let's hope the trend continues!

[whoagorgeous]

Seems like the TP buying frenzy is over. My local Costco has too many now.

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[yinzburgher]

If you have 30 minutes this is an interesting interview of Dr Jay Bhattacharya, whom is a Professor of Medicine at Stanford University.

I watched this when you posted it and thought it was interesting. But I was a little disappointed bc he kept saying that he suspects the fatality rate was much lower than others speculate but he didn't say why he thought that. It's helpful to me to know what smart people think but it's more helpful to know why they think it. He wrote an article in the WSJ HERE that probably says why but I don't subscribe to it so I couldn't find it there either. So I still don't know why he suspected it. But now this guy has put his money where his mouth is and completed the study he mentioned, so good on him and his colleagues. We need more of this. HERE is an article about his study on CNN and HERE is the actual study. Now what needs to happen is it needs to be peer reviewed and replicated. Not just in Santa Clara County but across the US and the world. Also, the antibody test that he used needs to be deemed legit bc there are many with problems apparently.

It's bothered me from the early on that WHO and some other groups and individuals were citing fatality rates on COVID-19 that (while accurately representing the numbers on hand) they knew were misleading. For my own thinking about this virus, I was using a death rate estimate in my head closer to 1%. That was just an easy to use and very rough number based on early stats out of South Korea and a few other areas that put an emphasis on testing. I saw some experts (including Tony Fauci) and science writers using that 1% number as well so I kind of kept that in my head until I started seeing more news.....news about testing in Iceland, false negatives, and particularly about tests of asymptomatic individuals. 50% of positives had no symptoms in places with broad-based testing. Easy math, the number in my head went down 0.5% to account for all the untested "positives" out there. Now if you believe this study's results and trust the extrapolations to the broader population numbers, that number could be closer to 0.1%. But there are still a whole slew of factors to keep in mind.......inaccurate tests, the sample size, the subjects, the area, the moment in time this study was done, the lag on death numbers, an accurate extrapolation, many others. Also, even if all of these numbers are accurate and can be replicated, it probably shouldn't give us a great deal of comfort yet. It means this thing is very easily spread and is out there in far greater numbers than we've previously thought possible and we are about to spread it around again. Which means more death and more stress on our healthcare system.

Also, the antibodies for this virus aren't quite so straightforward. Some studies are finding people with weak antibodies or very low levels of antibodies after infection. There are some people that may be getting "reinfected." It seems possible that this is the type of virus that some people could get twice before building immunity. It might be similar to chicken pox in the sense that if you get a very mild case, your body may not create the antibodies required for immunity and that you may require a second mild reinfection in order to form the antibodies required for future immunity. This has not been proven, it's just what some experts are thinking could be possible. And on a topic very related to antibodies, I think we might find that the vaccine situation will not be so straightforward either. Ideally, we would have one vaccine that gives you immunity against this virus for life. I think what we could end up with instead is a vaccine that needs to be administered every year or every few years. Antibodies to SARS and MERS and many other coronaviruses seem to give protection for only about 2-3 years. It's really too early to be speculating about this but I only mention it because if you read a lot of news about COVID-19, you could easily be lead to believe that in 1-2 years time we will have "the vaccine" which will give everybody lifelong immunity to illness from this virus. But when you look at the research and what experts say, you find it's a lot more complicated.

I'm linking the follow up interview with this doctor below. I hope his study spawns further testing, including more widespread antibody testing. I haven't watched this yet but I hope to later today.

[Sporkboy]

Toilet paper back in stock here. Drive by parties are a thing. There is one down the block, and they brought in horses. This is the view out my window. They are supporting local livestock handlers right?

[BostonCharlie]

If you have 30 minutes this is an interesting interview of Dr Jay Bhattacharya, whom is a Professor of Medicine at Stanford University.

... But I was a little disappointed bc he kept saying that he suspects the fatality rate was much lower than others speculate but he didn't say why he thought that. It's helpful to me to know what smart people think but it's more helpful to know why they think it. ...

...

Here is another link to their study.

Which says:

... Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

[BostonCharlie]

Donating blood this morning, I learned that here in North Texas they have plenty of blood. In fact, due to the decline in surgeries, they have been turning blood donors away and cancelling some appointments. This might be a local phenomenon, however. It might also depend on the blood type.

[DogOnTime]

Just something positive.....

I'll preface this by saying there is something to be said for positive thinking. I've never been a person to dwell on the negative, and I generally live by an "It is what it is" attitude. Dwelling on the negatives in life only makes the problems bigger than they are and solves nothing.

However, that video is nothing but word salad, pseudoscience gobbledygook. Picture things in your mind and your biology will change? Quantum physics is about consciousness?!? Ooooo-k.

If Bruce Lipton had his way, all Mrs.MoT, and other people with cancer or other diseases would have do to overcome their illnesses is to think happy thoughts or think about being well instead of trusting medical science.

All that's going to get them is dead. It's dangerous rhetoric.

It's mind-boggling how these "alternative" theories always stem for those with little to no education in the field.

I have a heavy science background and I really wish it became mandatory for upcoming generations to learn about basic biology and chemistry (Physics omitted because it's infinitely more complex than either fields). In this growing age of false information, having a baseline of knowledge is that much more important.

You can't just "pick and choose" scientific results because everything is based on the same foundation. I can't wait until the vaccine is finalised for anti-vaxxers to claim some other BS while on their smartphones and eating processed foods, a resulting derivative of scientific research.

[The Sultan of SoWhat]

Nsjong wrote:

It's mind-boggling how these "alternative" theories always stem for those with little to no education in the field.

]I have a heavy science background and I really wish it became mandatory for upcoming generations to learn about basic biology and chemistry (Physics omitted because it's infinitely more complex than either fields). In this growing age of false information, having a baseline of knowledge is that much more important.

You can't just "pick and choose" scientific results because everything is based on the same foundation. I can't wait until the vaccine is finalised for anti-vaxxers to claim some other BS while on their smartphones and eating processed foods, a resulting derivative of scientific research.
---------

Amen, Brother!

[BostonCharlie]

Results from some Southern California testing are consistent with the Santa Clara testing mentioned above, but questions remain (source, pay wall):

Some 863 adults in the county of about 10 million were tested for antibodies, and about 4.1% of the tests came back positive, said Barbara Ferrer, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health.

Researchers at the University of Southern California, who joined with the health department, then estimated that 2.8% to 5.6% of L.A. County’s adult population has been infected at some point.

...

The county’s test results are preliminary. The data wasn’t reviewed by experts, and the researchers who conducted the study didn’t release details beyond what was provided in a news release and briefings with the media.

Similar results in Santa Clara County, Calif., that were released on Friday from an overlapping group of researchers have faced criticism from epidemiologists, who say that the methods used to find participants and the way the researchers analyzed the data likely overinflated the results.

[PetWatch]

Here are the results of a study done by Smart Air co. on the efficiency of several types of face mask materials.

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/bes ... ial-covid/

Found info at Yahoo news, published by HuffPost Life. Article is political in nature but well worth being aware of what's going on. It's a matter of safety. If it's deleted, oh well.

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/best-cor ... 00624.html

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[Bbrou33]

Oktoberfest 2020 cancelled. I guess I won't be Prosting with @watchpalooza
Although my hotel reservation is not cancelable sooooo gotta figure that out.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKBN2230RY

Also the USS COMFORT left NYC this morning. Or is leaving. Which is a good sign. We will still be in lockdown for a while. Hopefully other parts of the country can get up and going safely.





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[watchpalooza]

Oktoberfest 2020 cancelled. I guess I won't be Prosting with @watchpalooza
Although my hotel reservation is not cancelable sooooo gotta figure that out.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKBN2230RY

Also the USS COMFORT left NYC this morning. Or is leaving. Which is a good sign. We will still be in lockdown for a while. Hopefully other parts of the country can get up and going safely.





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I know... very

[DogOnTime]

There has been speculation that adverse blood clotting may be induced from some strains of the coronavirus by multiple sources. While there has been plausibility of blood clotting from pre-existing conditions and overactive cytokine signaling from overactive immune systems, if the virus somehow initiates blood clotting on its own, it's something that should be considered even a greater threat. Viruses mutate at a significant speed due to their method of recombination in DNA replication so at this point, anything is possible.

There has also been developments of hydroxychloroquine to be essentially ineffective for coronavirus treatments:
"An analysis showed that nearly a third of veterans at US military hospitals died when treated with hydroxychloroquine, a greater fraction than patients who received standard treatment." (specific passage from the guardian but ample sources via google available) Again, science is unbiased.

My biochemist friend states that the blood clotting may not be a big deal, but just inducing attention for greater funding of research. What is true is that the vaccine is still ways away, although the trial usage of remdesivir is still ongoing. I was hoping hydroxychloroquine would have at least some effect in quelling the virus but all for naught.

Stay safe everyone. In Canada, this is foreseeable to last for months, even projected to last into next year.

[Bbrou33]

There has been speculation that adverse blood clotting may be induced from some strains of the coronavirus by multiple sources. While there has been plausibility of blood clotting from pre-existing conditions and overactive cytokine signaling from overactive immune systems, if the virus somehow initiates blood clotting on its own, it's something that should be considered even a greater threat. Viruses mutate at a significant speed due to their method of recombination in DNA replication so at this point, anything is possible.

There has also been developments of hydroxychloroquine to be essentially ineffective for coronavirus treatments:
"An analysis showed that nearly a third of veterans at US military hospitals died when treated with hydroxychloroquine, a greater fraction than patients who received standard treatment." (specific passage from the guardian but ample sources via google available) Again, science is unbiased.

My biochemist friend states that the blood clotting may not be a big deal, but just inducing attention for greater funding of research. What is true is that the vaccine is still ways away, although the trial usage of remdesivir is still ongoing. I was hoping hydroxychloroquine would have at least some effect in quelling the virus but all for naught.

Stay safe everyone. In Canada, this is foreseeable to last for months, even projected to last into next year.

I actually just watched a live stream from last night that was put on by 3 neurosurgeons I work with. 2 of which specialize in vascular. They, along with other colleagues from other hospitals, agree with this. They are seeing an increase in clotting, aneurysms, etc in patients with no underlying conditions except covid positive. Interesting, and scary, stuff. Especially coming from surgeons I work closely with and know they are some of the most knowledgeable I've ever worked with.

@yinzburgher how you doing being back on the East?

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